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Retail trade up first time in two years
Croatian Times
Retail trade was up slightly in July after two years of continuous fall thanks primarily to the tourist season, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (DZS) shows.
Retail sales grew one per cent in July in real terms – not a significant increase, but a plus nonetheless, the daily Jutarnji List writes.
Hypo Bank analyst Hrvoje Stojic believes that part of the reason for the positive shift is the good psychological effect following the elimination of the lower crisis tax rate earlier this summer. Consumption increased during the tourist season, but the July statistics are also helped by the low base for comparison as last year’s month registered a 14.5 per cent drop in retail sales.
Analysts predict that August will also have positive results and that the "summer" quarter will have an overall good effect on the economy as a whole. Slight GDP growth is expected.
The autumn, however, is expected to bring a growth in unemployment as seasonal work ends, potentially having negative effects on GDP. Raiffeinsen Bank analysts warn that retail trade recovery will be limited due to these negative labour market movements that will reflect on citizen consumerism. "Without the recovery of that segment, real recovery of retail trade cannot be expected regardless of the short-term positive influences of crisis tax elimination or the tourist spending," they say.
The GDP could fall 1.5 per cent on a yearly basis, but there is a consensus that 2011 will bring a 1.5 per cent growth. Retail trade – expected to have an annual drop of 2.5 per cent this year – could grow one per cent in 2011, the daily Jutarnji List writes.
Tag cloud retail elimination slightly Statistics Jutarnji growth Retail crisis season positive continuous sales effect Raiffeinsen negative having analyst Bank tourist recovery
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