Events for April
M T W T F S S
31 1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30 1 2 3 4
Add your event FREE

Videos


Polls

  • In Croatian Times I want more info on:
  • show result

    all polls


Croatia real estate


Zoran_Milanovic

How The World Will Find Global Economic Reset buttom

Croatian Times

'How The World Will Find Global Economic Reset buttom'
Clem Chambers explains how Japan could be first to find it. Clem is CEO of leading investment site ADVFN.com and author of new thriller, The First Horseman as well as the Amazon best-selling investment guides† '101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners' and 'A Beginner's Guide to Value Investing'.

As EU budget reports closed with no agreement Zoran Milanovic argued that "Itís not about money, itís about principles". Sadly, for Mr Milanovicís perspective, that argument is a hard sell for net EU Budget contributors like the UK Ė why should they cut their spending on national public services and increase their spending on Europe?
But this does not mean that there are not new opportunities emerging. Recently trade delegation headed by Ivo Josipovic went to Qatar to build new trade links and "launch long-term joint projects" whilst offering "full support to Qatari investments in Crotia".
Joining the EU and developing fresh contacts in the Middle East is a clear demonstration of how closely economies, including Croatia, are integrating. The rapid rate of this development means that investors need to understand the global financial context to make sound choices.
It is becoming clear that there will be plenty of volatility on the way but there is something underfoot; Japan could be on the edge of a massive change.
The Bank of Japan effectively rules Japan because it controls the purse strings and its main strategy is deflation. Inflation steals from the old and gives to the rich whilst deflation steals from the young and gives to the old.
Itís no mistake that Japan has inflation. In an aging shrinking population in an over populated country it makes sense to service the old at the short- term cost to the young. When the population finally drops to a sustainable level then the young will inherit the consequences.
The strategy makes sense on paper.
Politicians would prefer a buoyant, inflationary economy. They would like to see young people driving Japan into the new world rather than have it sucked dry by the non-innovative old. The reality is politicians have no say in the matter. The Bank of Japan, (BOJ) is independent. It canít be told to make inflation.
The expected new government is threatening to take away the BOJís independence and force through inflation.
Any idiot can create inflation. Ask Robert Mugabe if you really canít figure it out. Iím sure the old despot would be happy to oblige for a cheque of $50m. In fact Iíll do it for Japan for just $10m.
If the new government doesnít strip the BOJ of independence, nothing will change.
If the BOJís independence is removed however, and inflation of 2-4 % created, then the economy will grow explosively, boom† massively, the Yen falling† to sensible levels.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESET BUTTON

In this case, a blueprint will have been created for EuropeÖ meaning the ECB will likely take the same route† of government control Ė even the politically-tainted US Federal Reserve and the crypto-political Bank of England will follow the lead.
This will be the mechanism for Ďglobal economic resetí that will end the current period of forever trying to forestall the inevitable.
In the meantime, the US fiscal deal and Greek debt issues will create a new volatility which, in the short term, looks bad for markets.
Once these problems are sorted France will be the next "crisis point" yet,† ironically, all this pain will ultimately see the market grind upwards Ė admittedly against a string of violent mini-crashes and corrections.
The reason for this is investors want their money in hard assets and companies are as near as you can get in size to such things.
In the UK, the senior partner in the government coalition looks likely to try to win the next election via a promise to hold a referendum on an EU exit.† If they win a majority, which is likely as it would be a very popular move, theyíd keep power against a backdrop of clear revolt against the idea by the other parties. This too, would see markets wobble but not for long, and buying opportunities will be† created when the wobble comes.
The death grip of politics is going to start to weaken next year, as economics takes back the controls
This will increasingly put markets back into the driving seat.
Why?

BOND MARKET TO COLLAPSE

Because the bond market is going to, at some stage, collapse back to normality.
Money will either flood from sovereign debt or be annihilated. The recent new norm of zero per cent interest will morph towards the new model of Spain and Italy at 5%. Itís a case of going Ďforward to the past,í i.e. to† a world most of us knew - one in which there was an interest rate!
That flush of money out of bonds will then flood into equities. This long chain of events is on the rim of ski jump ; 2013 looks set to see this wild ride begin. It sounds like bad news but it could be good.
In the end, the world economy must return to equilibrium - the sooner the better. Itís time to get ready for the next rollercoaster ride of this economic epic.

~Visit www.ADVFN.com† for free, real-time stock prices
~ Clemís latest news and articles at www.clemchambers.com
~Follow Clem on Twitter: @ClemChambers

Clem Chambers (www.clemchambers.com ) is CEO of the leading financial information and investors website ADVFNand author of books including A Beginnerís Guide to Value Investing and 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners, both out now on the Kindle. His latest financial thriller The First Horseman is available for pre-order now.




Tag cloud strategy  economy  Inflation  Bank  Clem  investors  money  Europe  financial  bond  Qatar  pain  markets  independent  government  created  global  investment  delegation  Japan




Latest News

 

Salvador Dali exhibit in Rovinj
An exhibition of Salvador Dali graphics has opened in the western town of Rovinj.

Croatia abandons candidacy to organize European Football Championship
Croatian Football Federation has abandoned the idea for running as a candidate for organising European Football Championship in 2020.

Concert hall officials call off Thompson's concert in Berlin
The concert hall Columbiahalle in Berlin, Germany has called off the gig of Croatian singer Marko Perkovic Thompson after German media linked him with Nazi ideology.

Croatia and Slovenia agree joint military exercises
Croatia and Slovenia have agreed further cooperation in defense matters.

Sisak hosts organ music festival
The eighth International Organ Music Festival will take place in the central Croatia town of Sisak from 5 to 11 May.

Prime Minister calls for Croatia to turn to production
Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic has said that the country has to turn to production.

Danes visit the Croatian School of Surviving
Croatian School of Surviving from the western town of Pula has received further interest in their offer for people to come visit and learn urban combat lessons.

Arsenal targets Sime Vrsaljko
English Premiership side Arsenal is interested in signing Croatian right full back Sime Vrsaljko, the British media is reporting.

Bank official secretly takes money from accounts of his relatives
A bank official in Croatia has illegally taken 1.2 million Croatian kuna (over 100,000 GBP) from accounts of his cousins who were clients in the bank where he worked.

Opatija hosted 10 percent more tourists during Easter holidays
The western Croatian town of Opatija had 4,455 tourists registered during Easter holidays.

 


Cosmo&Nanu


The most popular stories –
last 7 days



Friends and Partners